Problem Set 3
4.1, 4.3, 4.5, 4.27, 4.31., and 4.37
4.1 The following gives the number of pints of type B blood used at Woodlawn Hospital in the past 6 weeks:
Week of Pints Used
8/31/2013 360
9/7/2013 389
9/14/2013 410
9/21/2013 381
9/28/2013 368
10/5/2013 374
a) Forecast the demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average.
b) Use a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of .1, .3, and .6, using .6 for the most recent week. Forecast demand for the week of October 12.
c) Compute the forecast for the week of October 12 using exponential smoothing with a forecast for August 31 of 360 and an a of .2.
4.3 Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing with a = .4 and a forecast for year 1 of 6. Plot your new forecast
on a graph with the actual data and the naive forecast. Based on a visual inspection, which forecast is better?
Year Demand Forecast Naïve Forecast
1 7 6.0 7
2 9 6.4 9
3 5 7.4 5
4 9 6.5 9
5 13 7.5 13
6 8 9.7 8
7 12 9.0 12
8 13 10.2 13
9 9 11.3 9
While the Naïve forecast goes higher on the chart, the forecast that used exponential smoothing seems to be more consistent.
4.5 The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows:
Year Mileage
1 3,000
2 4,000
3 3,400
4 3,800
5 3,700
What MAD results from using this approach to forecasting? (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data.)
Use a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of .4 and .6 to forecast next year’s mileage. (The weight of .6 is for the most recent year.)
4.27 George Kyparisis owns a company that manufactures sailboats. Actual demand for George’s sailboats during each of the past four seasons was as follows: YEAR
SEASON 1 2 3 4
Winter 1400 1200 1000 900
Spring 1500 1400 1600 1500
Summer 1000 2100 2000 1900
Fall 600 750 650 500
George has forecasted that annual demand for his sailboats in year 5 will equal 5,600 sailboats.Based on this data and the multiplicative seasonal model, what will the demand level be for George’s sailboats in the spring of year 5?
4.31 Café Michigan’s manager, Gary Stark, suspects that demand for mocha latte coffees depends on the price being charged. Based on historical observations, Gary has gathered the following data, which show the numbers of these coffees sold over six different price values:
Price Number Sold
$2.70 760
$3.50 510
$2.00 980
$4.20 250
$3.10 320
$4.05 480
Using these data, how many mocha latte coffees would be forecast to be sold according to simple linear regression if the price per cup were $2.80?
4.37 Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickman’s electronics store in Washington, D.C., over the past 10 weeks are shown in the table below:
Week Demand Week Demand
1 20 6 29
2 21 7 36
3 28 8 22
4 37 9 25
5 25 10 28
Try it now!
How it works?
Follow these simple steps to get your paper done
Place your order
Fill in the order form and provide all details of your assignment.
Proceed with the payment
Choose the payment system that suits you most.
Receive the final file
Once your paper is ready, we will email it to you.
Our Services
Custom Writings Help is a Quality-Oriented Company in Online Writing as a result of hiring exceptional professionals to execute clients' tasks.
Essays
At Custom Writings Help,We understand the struggle of research paper writing, and that is why at Custom WritingS Help, we are all out to help you. We pride ourselves on having a team of clinical writers. The stringent and rigorous vetting process ensures that only the 'BEST' Writers are chosen for the job. We have highly qualified Ph.D. and MA writers working with us; we equally offer these experienced writers specific bonuses and incentives to make them deliver highly original, unique, and informative content at reasonably low prices.
Admissions
Thesis Writing Service
Worlwide, Many Masters Students are struggling with Thesis Completion. A thesis is likely to be the longest and most challenging piece of work a student has ever completed. However, unlike essays and other assignments, a student can pick a particular interest topic and work on their initiative. Fortunately, we are there for you. At Custom Writings Help, you are assured of an authentic, imaginative, informative, linguistically great, and advantageous thesis that adheres to all your needs. So, why continue considering different writers when you have discovered the best in the field?
Editing
Custom Papers
Not a single student can avoid writing custom papers. However, a total lack of experience, skills, and time makes it very hard to produce a superb writing piece. Therefore, if you are seeking professional help, turn to us. Our specialized and experienced writers compose a variety of model papers, including custom essays, college term papers, research papers, book reports, MBA essays, executive summaries, dissertations, Ph.D. theses, admission essays, and research proposals for college and university students at any level.
Coursework
Essay Writing
Most of the students disregard the critical principles of essay writing and compose papers below sensible guidelines. Therefore, with Custom Writings Help, one should not worry about his/her essay. Our Writers compose informative and engaging content on all complexities and topics. We write meaningful and smart essays while prioritizing all aspects that bring about a good grade, such as impeccable grammar, proper structure, zero-plagiarism, and conformance to guidelines.
Coursework
Coourse Work Writing
Don't let the seemingly never-ending onslaught of writing assignments get you down. If you are looking where to get course work assistance online, the writers at Custom Writings Help are here to assist you with all of your writing needs. We undertake to unique delivery of papers that meet the professor's requirements. The content is proofread, edited, and checked plagiarism before submission to customers. No matter how big or small your work is, we will deliver on time. Try US Now! !
Coursework
Dissertation Writing Service
High-Quality Dissertation Writing Services are rare. They require Ph.D. academicians – not easily found. However, are an exception. The years, time, and resources we have invested in the dissertation world has given us a competitive advantage over others. Choose to come to Custom Writings Help; You will find perfect Ph.D. consultants who have written hundreds of dissertations theses ready to help you. Let our dissertation-writing services help you craft your dissertation, for you are assured we will give you the results.