In the essay “Surety of Fools”, Daniel Kahneman argues for the need to be cautious about the confidence we have in our judgements. According to his research, even experts, such as himself, who are trained to be objective, observe data carefully, and draw conclusions based on the data make repeated errors because of overconfidence,which causes us to ignore factual evidence, and continue to give our false beliefs the “illusion of validity.”
Using Kahneman’s ideas and examples on how cognitive fallacy and the illusion of validity impact our ability to make judgements, please develop a position around the following assignment question:
If the “illusion of validity” causes us to make errors in judgment how can we learn to guard against such illusions and become good decision makers?
Some points to consider:
You must discuss concepts such as “cognitive fallacy” and the “illusion of validity”, by giving specific examples and textual evidence from Kahneman’s essay. Do not just summarize Kahneman.. What does his argument about the illusion of validity tell us about the role of confidence in the decisions we make? How could Kahneman and his team have exercised greater accuracy in their judgments? How can we guard against such cognitive bias and errors in judgment? Does confidence in one’s beliefs always signal lack of good judgment and ignorance of facts?
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