Forecasting & smoothing methods | Accounting homework help

Forecasting & Smoothing Methods

 

Solved Problem #1: see text book

 

Solved Problem #2: see textbook (manual example using seasonal relatives)

 

Solved Problem #3: see textbook

 

Solved Problem #4: see textbook (you do not have to do this problem manually, use the template and notice how the template answers differ slightly from the seasonal relatives provided in the manual example)

 

To avoid manually entering the data into the templates it can be copied and pasted from Data Sets on the Lesson Page. Use “copy, paste special, values” to transfer the data to the template.

 

#1: A commercial bakery has recorded sales (in dozens) for three products, as shown below.

 

 

 

Day

 

Blueberry

Cinnamon

 

Cupcakes

 

 

 

 

 

Muffins

buns

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

30

18

 

45

 

 

 

 

2

 

34

17

 

26

 

 

 

 

3

 

32

19

 

27

 

 

 

 

4

 

34

19

 

23

 

 

 

 

5

 

35

22

 

22

 

 

 

 

6

 

30

23

 

48

 

 

 

 

7

 

34

23

 

29

 

 

 

 

8

 

36

25

 

20

 

 

 

 

9

 

29

24

 

14

 

 

 

 

10

 

31

26

 

18

 

 

 

 

11

 

35

27

 

47

 

 

 

 

12

 

31

28

 

26

 

 

 

 

13

 

37

29

 

27

 

 

 

 

14

 

34

31

 

24

 

 

 

 

15

 

33

33

 

22

 

 

a.  Determine the Naïve forecast for day 16.

 

 

 

 

 

b.   What does the use of sales data rather than demand data imply?

 

#2: National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales ($000) for a seven-month period were as follows:

 

Month

Sales

Feb

19

Mar

18

Apr

15

May

20

Jun

18

Jul

22

Aug

20

 

  1. Plot the monthly data.
  1. Forecast September sales volume in thousands of dollars using the following methods: Show your answers in the space provided.

 

1.       Naïve

 

2.       Five-month moving average

3.       Weighted moving average using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June

4.       Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .20

5.       Linear trend equation.

 

#3: A cosmetics manufacturer’s marketing department has developed a linear trend equation that can be used to predict annual sales of its popular Hand & Foot Cream.

 

Ft  =80+15t where

 

F t= annual sales (000 bottles)

 

t   = 0corresponds to1990

 

  1. Indicate how much the sales are increasing or decreasing?
  1. Predict sales for the year 2006 using the equation? This is a manual problem!

 

#4: Freight car loadings over a 12-year period at a busy port are as follows: The units are in thousands of tons.

 

Year

Loadings

1

220

2

245

3

280

4

275

5

300

6

310

7

350

8

360

9

400

10

380

11

420

12

450

13

460

14

475

15

500

16

510

17

525

18

541

 

  1. Determine the linear trend equation for the freight car loadings.
  1. What is the slope? Interpret it.

 

c.

Use the trend equation to predict the freight loadings for years 20 and 21.

d.

The manager intends to install new equipment when the loadings exceeds 800 (thousand tons) per

 

year. Assuming the current trend continues the loading volume will reach that level in

 

approximately what year? This is a manual problem!

 

 

#5: A manager of a store that sells and installs spas wants to prepare a forecast for January, February and March of next year. Her forecasts are a combination of trend and seasonality.

 

The linear trend equation is

 

Ft  =70+5t where

 

t =0 corresponds to June of last year

 

The seasonal relatives are 1.10 for January, 1.02 for February, and .95 for March.

 

  1. What demand should she predict for January, February and March of next year? This is a manual problem! If you need some hints on this problem, refer to solved problem #2 in the textbook.

 

#6: Obtain estimates of daily relatives for the number of customers at a restaurant for the evening meal given the past 4 weeks of historical data. Day 1 is day 1 of week 1, day 8 is day 1 of week 2, etc.

 

Day

Served

1

80

2

75

3

78

4

95

5

130

6

136

7

40

8

82

9

77

10

80

11

94

12

125

13

135

14

42

15

84

16

77

17

83

18

96

19

135

20

140

21

37

22

87

23

82

24

98

25

103

26

144

27

144

28

48

 

 

a.  Construct a graph that will enable you to visualize the daily variation in meals served.

b.       What are the daily adjusted seasonal relatives?

c.        Plot the adjusted seasonal relatives on a graph for each day of the week?

 

  1. Determine the forecast for meals to be served for the next 7 days.
  1. Plot historical demand with forecast on the same graph.

 

#7: A farming cooperative manager wants to estimate quarterly relatives for grain shipments, based on the 5 years of data shown below (quantities are in metric tons). You will have to enter this data into the template manually.

 

 

 

QUARTER

 

Year

1

2

3

4

1

200

250

210

340

2

210

252

212

360

3

215

260

220

358

4

225

272

233

372

5

232

284

240

381

 

 

a.       Calculate the quarterly adjusted seasonal relatives.

 

b.       Use the adjusted seasonal relative to determine what percentage shipments in quarter 4 are greater than shipments quarter 3.

 

Get 20% Discount on This Paper
Pages (550 words)
Approximate price: -

Try it now!

Get 20% Discount on This Paper

We'll send you the first draft for approval by at
Total price:
$0.00

How it works?

Follow these simple steps to get your paper done

Place your order

Fill in the order form and provide all details of your assignment.

Proceed with the payment

Choose the payment system that suits you most.

Receive the final file

Once your paper is ready, we will email it to you.

Our Services

Custom Writings Help is a Quality-Oriented Company in Online Writing as a result of hiring exceptional professionals to execute clients' tasks.

Essays

Research Papers

At Custom Writings Help,We understand the struggle of research paper writing, and that is why at Custom WritingS Help, we are all out to help you. We pride ourselves on having a team of clinical writers. The stringent and rigorous vetting process ensures that only the 'BEST' Writers are chosen for the job. We have highly qualified Ph.D. and MA writers working with us; we equally offer these experienced writers specific bonuses and incentives to make them deliver highly original, unique, and informative content at reasonably low prices.

Admissions

Thesis Writing Service

Worlwide, Many Masters Students are struggling with Thesis Completion. A thesis is likely to be the longest and most challenging piece of work a student has ever completed. However, unlike essays and other assignments, a student can pick a particular interest topic and work on their initiative. Fortunately, we are there for you. At Custom Writings Help, you are assured of an authentic, imaginative, informative, linguistically great, and advantageous thesis that adheres to all your needs. So, why continue considering different writers when you have discovered the best in the field?

Editing

Custom Papers

Not a single student can avoid writing custom papers. However, a total lack of experience, skills, and time makes it very hard to produce a superb writing piece. Therefore, if you are seeking professional help, turn to us. Our specialized and experienced writers compose a variety of model papers, including custom essays, college term papers, research papers, book reports, MBA essays, executive summaries, dissertations, Ph.D. theses, admission essays, and research proposals for college and university students at any level.

Coursework

Essay Writing

Most of the students disregard the critical principles of essay writing and compose papers below sensible guidelines. Therefore, with Custom Writings Help, one should not worry about his/her essay. Our Writers compose informative and engaging content on all complexities and topics. We write meaningful and smart essays while prioritizing all aspects that bring about a good grade, such as impeccable grammar, proper structure, zero-plagiarism, and conformance to guidelines.

Coursework

Coourse Work Writing

Don't let the seemingly never-ending onslaught of writing assignments get you down. If you are looking where to get course work assistance online, the writers at Custom Writings Help are here to assist you with all of your writing needs. We undertake to unique delivery of papers that meet the professor's requirements. The content is proofread, edited, and checked plagiarism before submission to customers. No matter how big or small your work is, we will deliver on time. Try US Now! !

Coursework

Dissertation Writing Service

High-Quality Dissertation Writing Services are rare. They require Ph.D. academicians – not easily found. However, are an exception. The years, time, and resources we have invested in the dissertation world has given us a competitive advantage over others. Choose to come to Custom Writings Help; You will find perfect Ph.D. consultants who have written hundreds of dissertations theses ready to help you. Let our dissertation-writing services help you craft your dissertation, for you are assured we will give you the results.