Demographic Transition Model



Population and Economic Data for Country X

In this lesson you analyzed data and practiced your skills of prediction. Now it is time to take a position and defend it. In the following activity, you will take a 60-year view of demographic changes in Country X. Based on your analysis of the facts, you will play the role of a demographer and defend your prediction of Country X’s stage of development.

  1. Review the Grading Rubric for this lesson.
  2. Open Population and Economic Data for Country X to read and analyze the country’s statistics.
  3. Print a copy of the statistics to have as a reference.
  4. Review the statistics for Country X and consider the following questions:
  • Based on the birth and mortality rates, estimate the rate of natural increase (NIR = Crude birth rate – crude death rate) for each time period.
  • Describe what stage of the model you think that the country has been in since the mid-1900s, and cite at least two data points from this table to support your answer.
  • What conclusions can be drawn about the country’s current economy?
  • Predict what Country X’s population will be in 2030 and defend how you reached your prediction. If you do additional research, cite your sources.
  1. Create a presentation in which you answer the questions above. You may choose the type of media you wish to use to present your argument. Include the answers to the questions in an essay


Population Data for Country X

Rank Mid-1900s  1990s 2009
Birth rate 42.1 per thousand
21.16 per thousand 18.43 per thousand
Total fertility rate Over 5
(in 1940s)
2.44 2.21
Mortality rate 12.3 per thousand
8 per thousand 6.35 per thousand
Population 51,944,397
157,079,573 198,739,269


2009 Economic Data for Country X

Gross domestic product (GDP) $1.499 trillion
GDP per capita $10,200 (2009 est.)
GDP real growth rate -0.2% (2009), 5.1% (2008)
Labor force by occupation Agriculture 20%, industry 14%, services 66%
Exports transport equipment, iron ore, soybeans, footwear, coffee, autos

Source: The World Factbook 2009. Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency, 2009


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